The authors note that a key element is corporate leaders who expect surprise but reduce uncertainty by using strategic foresight. Navigating public policy making tuomo kuosa strategic foresight is traditionally associated with the military and politics. The conceptual frame of strategic foresight as developed in the second chapter emphasized two contributions of foresight to public policy making. Consider practical applications of using strategic foresight to influence strategic decision making to benefit you, as a senior executive, and the organization you lead. The enchanted island ian serraillier librarydoc85 pdf we have made it easy for you to find a pdf ebooks without any digging. Building a strategic foresight capacity slideshare. An agenda and other information will be sent to registered participants a few days prior to the lab. Inferring in foresight the evolution of strategic foresight taylor. Aug 04, 20 this briefing outlines the abrams learning and information systems, inc. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight. Strategic foresight involves broadening the menu of policy options, and taking into account future scenarios that might affect todays decisions. At its best, the process allows policymakers to explore possible futures, and pursue policies that are most likely to bring them to fruition. The potential role of ai in anticipating futures from a. Strategic foresight in the european unions ten new member states public policy making.
Navigating public policy making kindle edition by kuosa, tuomo. Using strategic foresight to influence strategic decision. This site is like a library, use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want. Strategic foresight sf is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organisationally useful ways. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the military and politics. Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. Policyoriented foresight as a tool for strategic policy. Strategic policy making in finland link with strategic.
Strategic foresight in the european unions older member states public policy making 9. To address such question, this article reports on selected epistemological and methodological traits of design futures research, on the nature of artificial intelligence ai, and the potential impact of ai on the design futures domain, offering a conceptual. Efforts to create strategic foresight capacity in the u. Pdf the evolution of strategic foresight navigating. Pdf embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, tuomo. The use of foresight and scenario planning in strategic decision making by south african executives danielle meyerowitz 26312825 a research project submitted to the gordon institute of business science, university of. The foresight guide a big picture guide to the 21st century. Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, tuomo kuosa. Application of enhanced swot analysis in the futureoriented public management of technology. Strategic foresight and government to bind themselves into rigid positions. Foresight and futures studies have a special interest on futures knowledge as discussed in the second chapter. Championing exponential, evo devo, and evidencebased thinking. The central question is in what ways policy oriented foresight can influence the strategic policy process and thus serve as a tool for strategic policymaking.
The purpose of this paper is to define the construct of confidence in top leadership and to develop a brief measure of that construct. But in recent years, there has been some progress at the agency level. Abstract the paper presents recent insights from the ongoing forlearn project, which aims to develop foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience mutual learning in europe. Learning with futures to realise progress towards sustainability. Strategic decision making strategic foresight planning learning 1. Should do also the application of the indicato librarydoc85, the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making librarydoc85, and many other ebooks. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. Strategic foresight in government national academy of. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading the evolution of strategic foresight. Navigating public policy making, the evolution of strategic foresight, tuomo kuosa, routledge. The technique of strategic foresight developing policy based on longrun scenario planning has much to offer australian governments. Given the relatively new nature of policy oriented. In order to implement the policy, the strategic analyst of the department of health care in australia needs to concern regulatory. In this sense, strategic foresight is fundamentally different from the notion of five or 10 year plans.
The use of foresight and scenario planning in strategic. This magisterial new account answers these questions by tracing the history of western thinking about strategy the employ. Strategic foresight in the european unions ten new member states public policy making 10. Centers for disease control and prevention cdc policy for. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the french and angloamerican schools of. Futurescience pdf download download ebook pdf, epub. Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its ro. Tuomo kuosa looks at its development into a method of generating analyses of alternative futures and strategies, based. Featured in bibliozone this month is a collection of publications related to foresight methodologies and futures research methods. Planning considers a multitude of factors in the present environment, measures them and then extrapolates the data into the future. Measuring follower confidence in top leadership direction janet l. Leuven public management institute 3 strategic policy making within their respective policy domains innovation policy, environmental policy and nature policy. May result in immediate policy action or strategic orientation within the government the outcomes are available for informing a wider public debate, electoral campaigns and act as references for policy development major question.
Navigating public policy making kindle edition by tuomo kuosa. Application of enhanced swot analysis in the future. Introduction foresight concepts strategic concepts evolutionary concepts inferring in theory inferring in foresight. To be the best big picture guide to 21st century foresight. Application of enhanced swot analysis in the futureoriented. A two days training course on foresight methodology was held with the students of department of technology and management, from the faculty of technology management and business. Scenarios illustrate probable, plausible, and possible future developments and serve as a framework for strategic planning and decision making. Navigating public policy making 1 by tuomo kuosa isbn. The technique of strategic foresight developing policy based on long. It is also a contribution to make strategic foresight more accessible to a larger community of policy makers and to make anticipation a new literacy so that everyone from public. In one sense, it is merely an extension of good policymaking. Mgt5str strategic management planning oz assignments. For example, multiscale agentbased modeling, a tool for exploring emergent behaviors, is the analytic cornerstone of the u. This inquiry looked at the following characteristics of identified stakeholders.
Participatory and inclusive foresight methods create spaces for dialogue and negotiations between a broad spectrum of. Views of policy makers and high government officials 187. The evolution of strategic foresight navigating public. Pdf strategic foresight process improvements for the. Lee the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making por tuomo kuosa disponible en rakuten kobo. Today the terms foresight and strategic foresight have become commonly used to encompass the wide range of. Julie elkner, the changing face of repression under khrushchev.
Since strategic foresight refers to the practice of generating analyses of alternative futures and strategies, based on available intelligence and foreknowledge, the practice can and should be applied to companies, business sectors, national and transnational agencies of all descriptions, and to all aspects of public policy making. Exercises to explore the future are considered to be important for strategic planning, decision making support and for public policy formulation, as they allow for foreseeing breakthroughs, technology leaps, trends and discontinuities, new perspectives and opportunity maps present themselves to a corporation through identifying its challenges and strengths coates, cited by. By decoupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. Managing the development of hightech enterprises based on. Read the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making by tuomo kuosa available from rakuten kobo.
Generating futures from textscenario development using. Case studies in the practice of foresight 3, adaptive governance for a changing world 4orthe evolution of strategic foresight. Extends perspectives for policy making foresight as advocacy for policy implementation highlights new challenges wins support over the new policy challenges common vision foresight for social network creates a new frame for participatory policy making builds new networks and communities esdn conference 2017, prague, 23 june 2017 15 rational. Cases of finland, singapore and european union 1 and the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making 2, are strongly based on versatile countryspecific summaries. Mar 16, 2016 at the moment he works in alternativefutures, which merges strategic foresight with ideation, concept design and fast prototyping in order to enhance public and private customers abilities to generate on time new business plans, strategies, services and concepts. Strategic foresight in the public policy making of other countries and transnational organizations 11. The evolution of strategic foresight tuomo kuosa bok. Strategic foresight in the public policy making of other countries and transnational organizations. Parti knowledge 1 1 introduction 3 2 foresight concepts 5 3 strategic concepts 45 4 evolutionary concepts 65 5 inferring in theory 87 6 inferring in foresight 99 part ii structure 5 7 principles of strategic foresight in public policy making 7 8 strategic foresight in the european unions older member states public policy making 9 9 strategic.
We provide copy of the evolution of strategic foresight. Six functions of foresight for policy making are elaborated on. Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc. The art and science of anticipating the future, abingdon. Strategic foresight in european unions older member states public policy making. The evolution of strategy is there a western way of war which pursues battles of annihilation and singleminded military victory. Policy oriented foresight as a tool for strategic policy making. The evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making, surrey, gower. Developing and applying strategic foresight richard a. Alis program to educate of planners, analysts and decision makers in strategic foresight, alternative futures and scenariobased planning. Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organisationally useful ways. Yorkovich the tool whats the difference between strategic planning and strategic foresight. Presentation at aair forum, sydney, nov slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising.
Strategic foresight can inform national policy in the face of profound uncertainty about what lies ahead. For one, resultsbased management rbm demands an enhanced cohe1. Pdf the evolution of strategy download full pdf book download. Principles of strategic foresight in public policy making. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the. This online book is the most comprehensive intro to general futures thinking and professional foresight practice available on the web. Bringing strategic foresight to bear in policy planning and management. Is warfare on a path to ever greater destructive force. Firstly, the complexity of the policy environment is described and linked to strategic policy. Click download or read online button to get futurescience pdf download book now. We provide copy of the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making librarydoc85 in digital format, so the resources that you find are reliable. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, the evolution of strategic foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students engaged in strategy and future studies, longrange, public policy and urban planners, analysts.
The evolution of strategic foresight ebook by tuomo kuosa. Two components are organically linked to strategic foresight. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study. For example, stakeholder analysis in policy making is used to create support for policy decisions and commitment for the implementation of policy. Yet many of the ideas of strategic foresight are quite different from the way in which most governments operate today. Foresight as a key enabler of innovation in the economy. Technological forecasting and social change on strategic foresight 1, 2, in the european planning studies journal or in books, such aswhat works. The evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making. Information knowledge management products routledge. The evolution of strategic foresight 10 strategic foresight in the public policy making of other countries and transnational organizations 173 part iii process 185 11 how could the strategic foresight process better facilitate national decision making. Sources of futures studies from foresight to anticipation.
The essentials of futures studies are introduced for graduate level researchers who want to begin and to pursue a career in futures studies and anticipation. At its best, the process allows policy makers to explore possible futures, and pursue policies that are most likely to bring them to fruition. The selection of documents is partial and based on accessible material. Sep 03, 2012 this much is surely correct, but it remains unclear whether or not heusers focus on writers whose works considered policymaking and the conduct of war pp. Foresighting the innovation development of hightech enterprises may involve specific methods and sets of methods that were in wide use around the world and utilized successfully prior to the emergence of the foresight methodological concept for longterm forecasting and planning.
The evolution of strategic foresight ebook por tuomo kuosa. In 202014, the hungarian ministry of defense hun mod engaged in its first structured strategic foresight process, a process designed to examine events that might affect hungary until 2030. Reviewed by alberto barese for your safety and comfort, read carefully ebooks the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making librarydoc85, our library is free for you. Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, tuomo kuosa describes how something not traditionally considered an independent discipline, is steadily becoming one. Case studies in the practice of foresight, adaptive governance for a changing world or the evolution of strategic foresight. Foresight for development turns the spotlight on foresight methodologies and future thinking. By paying greater attention to identifying emerging issues, and drawing on a broad range of information sources, policies are more likely to prove durable and effective. For example in the special issues of foresight or technological forecasting and social change on strategic foresight 1, 2, in the european planning studies journal or in books, such as what works. At the same time, practical application of government foresight in strategic planning and policy development can also be empowering for citizens. The wide interest in future studies seems to be con. At the centre of foresight is its aim to influence policy and predict future changes to better prepare such.
Aug 25, 2008 an overview of strategic foresight, and several futures tools that can be used to build a strategic foresight capacity. Scenario thinking historical evolution strategic foresight. The key question behind this article is, how is ai impacting futures research, with particular focus on foresight and design futures. These documents include public health care, public utility and the federal government.